US Dollar Index Key Thresholds Amid Economic Developments
In the ever-evolving landscape of financial indices, the US Dollar Index faces a critical juncture near the 106.90 mark. Recent fluctuations in US yields have piqued interest, hinting at a potential resurgence following a brief dip. This article explores the dynamic world of the US Dollar Index, considering the impact of US PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) and Final Consumer Sentiment.
The Current Status of the US Dollar
The USD Index, which assesses the performance of the US dollar against a basket of major currencies, is currently experiencing a dip in its upward trajectory. It now lingers around the mid-106.00s as the week draws to a close.
How the USD Index Reacted to Recent Data
This index recently underwent a reversal, shedding gains accumulated over three consecutive days. It currently grapples with slight downward pressure after approaching a three-week low near 106.90 in the previous session.
US Yields and Market Speculation
In parallel, US yields appear to be in a consolidation phase, having reached multi-year highs across various maturities. Market sentiment leans towards the Federal Reserve pausing its activities in the upcoming event next week. Although the possibility of an interest rate hike in December remains on the horizon.
This sentiment gained further ground after the release of US Q3 GDP figures and Durable Goods Orders, both of which exceeded expectations.
Key US Economic Data on the Horizon
Within the realm of US economic data, all eyes are on the publication of US inflation metrics, as gauged by the PCE and Core PCE indices. These closely watched figures are accompanied by reports on Personal Income, Personal Spending, and the latest updates on the Michigan Consumer Sentiment.
What to Watch for Regarding the USD
The previous upward momentum of the USD Index seems to have encountered its first obstacle. Hovering just below the 107.00 threshold this week.
Simultaneously, the US dollar continues to gain strength from the robust state of the US economy and persistent high inflation. This inflationary trend results in higher yields and bolsters the argument for the Federal Reserve to maintain a policy of restraint for an extended period.
Notable Events in the US This Week
This week, there are key events to keep a close eye on in the United States, including the release of PCE and Core PCE data. Reports on Personal Income and Spending, and the final Michigan Consumer Sentiment report due on Friday.
However, persistent concerns remain on the periphery. These include the ongoing debate about the rate at which the US economy is slowing down and speculations regarding potential interest rate cuts in early 2024. Additionally, geopolitical tensions involving Russia, China, and the Middle East continue to influence market sentiment.
USD Index Thresholds to Monitor
At present, the USD Index has experienced a marginal decrease of 0.02%, settling at approximately 106.60. The first notable support level can be found at 105.36, marking the lowest point reached on October 24, on a monthly scale. Subsequently, attention turns to 104.42, the lowest point recorded on September 11 on a weekly scale. Followed by 103.39, representing the 200-day Simple Moving Average.
On the upside, a breakthrough above 106.88, the highest point achieved on October 26 on a weekly scale. The way for further gains, potentially reaching 107.34, the highest point on October 3, 2023, and ultimately 107.99, recorded on November 21, 2022, on a weekly scale.
