The Japanese Yen stages a surprising comeback, radiating a tangible positive momentum. Simultaneously, the USD/JPY pair faces a dip, retracing gains from the previous two days. Investors anxiously await the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), anticipating a resurgence of market dynamics leading to the Wednesday Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
The Forces Behind Japanese Yen Choreography
Monday witnessed the Japanese Yen (JPY) experiencing a second consecutive day of decline, erasing substantial gains against the US Dollar (USD) from the previous week. This shift is attributed to the diminishing prospects of an immediate change in the policy stance of the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Reports from Bloomberg News suggest the BoJ finds it unnecessary to abandon the negative interest rate policy this month. The lack of evidence for wage growth weakens the case for ending the ultra-loose monetary policy. Positive risk sentiment and record highs in US stocks add downward pressure on the JPY.
The USD/JPY Pair’s Rollercoaster Ballet
In response, the USD/JPY pair surged beyond the mid-146.00s on Monday, rising over 400 pips from Friday’s low and nearly 500 pips from the multi-month trough the previous Thursday. However, momentum waned around the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA). Leading spot prices to retreat to the 145.70 region during Tuesday’s Asian session, influenced by subdued USD price dynamics. Traders tread cautiously, awaiting clarity on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy decisions, expecting a gentle landing for the US economy.
Shifting Expectations: The Drama of US Economic Indicators
The recent US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, highlighting job growth and a 3.7% unemployment rate in November, prompts investors to reassess expectations for a 25 bps Fed rate cut in March 2024. Simultaneously, a New York Fed survey reveals a drop in consumer inflation expectations in November, fueling speculations of possible monetary policy easing in the first half of the upcoming year.
Anticipation of Key Economic Data: The Climax Approaches
Market participants await US consumer inflation figures on Thursday and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Wednesday. The spotlight, however, remains on the FOMC monetary policy meeting on Wednesday. The “dot plot” from this meeting will be scrutinized for insights into the Fed’s rate trajectory. Influencing USD demand and shaping the short-term path for the USD/JPY pair.
Japanese Yen in the Crosshairs: A Riveting Plot Twist
In market dynamics, the Japanese Yen emerges as a sought-after currency ahead of imminent US data and central bank event risks. On Monday, the Japanese Yen ranked as the weakest G10 currency, dispelling notions of the Bank of Japan’s inclination towards tightening policy. A Reuters report clarifies Governor Ueda’s remarks on policy options, signaling no imminent exit timing.
USD’s Struggle and Japanese Yen Technical Ballet
The US Dollar struggles to capitalize on positive momentum from encouraging US jobs data, given uncertainty about the Federal Reserve’s policy rate adjustments. A New York Fed survey reveals a decline in consumer inflation expectations, fostering hopes for a soft landing of the US economy and countering expectations for an initial rate cut in March 2024.
Investors await crucial US consumer inflation data, with expectations of a 0.1% rise in the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November and a downward tick to 3.1% in the yearly pace. Simultaneously, the core gauge is anticipated to inch up from a 0.2% month-on-month rate to 0.3% in November. Maintaining a steady 4% year-on-year rate. However, all eyes remain on the FOMC monetary policy decision on Wednesday. Playing a pivotal role in shaping short-term USD price dynamics.
Technical Ballet: USD/JPY’s Intricate Choreography
In technical analysis, the USD/JPY encounters resistance near the 200-hour SMA, preserving its bearish potential. The setback and subsequent decline during Tuesday’s Asian session call for caution among bullish traders. Further downward movement is likely to find support near the 145.40 area, representing the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Oscillators on the daily chart deeply entrenched in negative territory suggest sustained selling pressure could lead to an accelerated slide towards 145.00. En route to the 38.2% Fibonacci level around the 144.70-144.65 region.
Potential Scenarios: A Theatrical Dance of Bulls and Bears
Conversely, the 146.00 round figure now serves as an immediate barrier. Bulls must await sustained strength beyond the 200-hour SMA resistance, near the mid-146.00s, before contemplating further upward moves. In such a scenario, the USD/JPY pair may aim to surpass the 147.00 mark. Testing the next relevant hurdle near the 147.40-147.50 supply zone. The latter represents a critical pivotal point, and a decisive clearance could suggest the conclusion of the recent sharp pullback from the 152.00 neighborhood, signaling a shift in bias in favor of bullish traders.
