In the midst of anticipation leading up to the FOMC gathering, the Indian Rupee maintains a steadfast position, exuding an aura of composure. The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has opted for stability, holding the interest rate at a consistent 6.50% during its December session. Let’s delve into the crucial details shaping the trajectory of the Indian Rupee.
RBI’s Pledge to Steadfastness
The recent pronouncement from RBI’s MPC underscores an unswerving commitment to an unchanged 6.50% interest rate. Simultaneously, the MPC has revised the growth forecast for the ongoing fiscal year, raising it from 6.5% to a promising 7%. Governor Das attributes this decision to diminishing inflation across diverse retail sectors.
Imminent Hurdles and Watchfulness
Governor Das hints at the near-term landscape veiled with uncertainties tied to food inflation. This suggests a potential increase in inflation for November and possibly December. Caution is urged to discern potential second-round effects.
Global Vistas: US Inflation Metrics and Indian Rupee
Market participants scrutinize US inflation metrics, particularly gauged through the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Attention swiftly shifts towards the impending Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday. Meanwhile, the RBI stands ready to support the Indian Rupee at the 83.40 level. Anticipating buying interest from entities, including oil companies, during USD/INR downturns.
Market Tenacity and Governor Das’s Affirmation
The Indian Rupee demonstrates resilience against external disruptions, bolstered by favorable macro data, sustainable forex reserves, and continuous investor inflows. Governor Shaktikanta Das emphasizes the unanimous decision of the MPC to maintain the policy repo rate at 6.5%, accentuating an unwavering dedication to the withdrawal of accommodation.
Governor Das highlights the robustness and momentum of the Indian economy, evident in the GDP growth in the second quarter of the ongoing fiscal year. Forecasts for Indian retail inflation in FY24 stand at 5.4%, with estimates of 5.6% in Q3 and 5.2% in Q4. The GDP growth projection for FY24 is optimistically set at 7.0%, with projections of 6.5% and 6.0% for the third and fourth quarters, respectively.
Financial Milestone: Surging Foreign Exchange Reserves
India’s foreign exchange reserves surge beyond the $600 billion mark as of December 1. Marking a resurgence after a hiatus of approximately four months. In the US, Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) witness a rise of 199K from the previous month’s 150K, surpassing market expectations of 180K.
Analyzing Indian Rupee Trajectory: Technical Insights
Let’s delve into a technical analysis of the Indian Rupee’s trajectory. The USD/INR pair exhibits a level trajectory with a subtle positive inclination, lingering near the upper bounds of a trading range spanning 82.80–83.40 since September. The daily chart indicates that USD/INR maintains its bullish undertones, positioned above the pivotal 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to hover above the 50.0 threshold, fortifying the upward momentum. However, a decisive breach above the upper limit of the trading range at 83.40 could pave the way for a subsequent challenge at the year-to-date (YTD) high of 83.47, followed by the round figure of 84.00.
On the downside, a critical support level resides at the psychological round figure of 83.00. A breach below 83.00 could lead to a descent to 82.80, encompassing the lower limit of the trading range and the low recorded on September 12. Additional downside potential includes revisiting the low observed on August 11 at 82.60.
In conclusion, the Indian Rupee navigates the global economic currents with unwavering resilience. Upheld by sagacious monetary policies and positive macroeconomic indicators. As global economic events unfold, the Indian Rupee stands tall as a bastion of stability in a dynamically evolving financial panorama.
